Weekly Technical Brief – Thursday 14th February 2014

The last week has shown some good gains on a number of Indices and Commodities. Very few of the weekly trends changed this week, and only some of the daily trends. This indicates some stability with the trend, but remember even the daily swing chart is a lagging indicator. The daily trend on Coffee shows as Uncertain but look at what the price chart shows! Always, when putting information in a table format, you must go and look at the price chart.

 Market  Weekly  Daily
 E-Mini S&P  Down  Down
 SPI200  Down  Down
 Crude Oil  Uncertain  Up
 Gold  Up  Uncertain
 Silver  Up*  Uncertain
 Soybeans  Uncertain*  Uncertain
 Cotton  Up  Up
 Coffee  Up  Uncertain
 Sugar  Down  Uncertain
 US Dollar  Up  Down*
 Aussie Dollar  Down  Up*

* Indicates a change from last week.

Stock Indices

E-Mini S&P 
Analysis: Strong run has performed out of the 5th February low. Pull back into 50%. Watching for a higher swing bottom above 5th Feb.
Alternate Scenario: Break of 5th Feb low, will indicate change in trend on the weekly chart.
Comments: Bullish signs to held above 1735.62. Bearish signs break of 1732. Watching for 3 closes below this level.


SPI200 (Australian Share Price Index) 

Analysis: Double Bottom on 50% @ 5016. 24 trading days repeated into 50%. Looking for higher swing bottom above 5000. Price reaction to take place.
Alternate Scenario: Break of 6th Feb low, will indicate change in trend on the weekly chart.
Comments: Bullish signs to held above 5000. Bearish signs are a lower swing top under 5000

Commodities

Crude Oil
Analysis: Broke 10 multiples of ATL @ $9.75. Sitting at double top. Waiting for retracement or pullback to see the market sit on $9.75
Alternate Scenario: Double Top proves more aggressive and a break of $97.50 and a test of $96.30
Comments: Shows signs of strength.


Gold

Analysis: Major Double Bottom. Broke resistance at 1273. Pull back into test this area waiting for bullish signals. Confirmation of bullish strong will be a break of 1310.
Alternate Scenario: Fails at 1300. Price move back to 1242.
Comments: Large trading band between 1400 and 1200. Watch for break.